Current Affairs Discourse – Blog about Current Affairs

Supply & Demand chains disruptions?

April 8, 2020 Shaker Cherukuri 21st century, Coronavirus, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy No Comments

This have never happened before ever!

Global supply chains AND Demand Chains collapse!!

https://t.co/W5LyfJt1bY

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 8, 2020

Not even in 2008 or 2001 or 1930s. How is that possible?

Natural disasters, which is what Coronavirus is, usually impact global supply chains if the disaster happens at a global supply base location.

This causes supply shortage, price spike, demand contraction or new supply and self correction.

A recession causes demand collapse, supply glut, price collapse, supply contraction and self correction.

Now we are about to see both simultaneously: Supply disruption AND demand collapse. There is no precedent for this.

Yes, we have had pandemics before, however it was before globalization and global trade and global intertwined economy. All impact was local. There was no global savings glut or global trade or global travel.

We do, however, have $30+ Trillion of global QE stimulus out there now when we combine 2008 and 2020.

2008 + 2020 now adds upto $10 Trillion In QE/stimulus. Just the US. Globally, is what $30 Trillion? Should be an awesome 20s.

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 4, 2020

Who will be doing the consumption?

Homo Deus
1. humans will lose their economic and military usefulness, hence the economic and political system will stop attaching much value to them.
2.The system will continue to find value in humans collectively, but not in unique individuals.
Omg! pic.twitter.com/mHg1oWrN09

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) September 30, 2018

New Golf rules during Coronavirus!

April 6, 2020 Shaker Cherukuri Coronavirus, Golf No Comments

Finally got out to golf after a long break and ran into new Coronavirus golf rules!

Golf during Coronavirus
Single riders or walk. What about the caddy?

Flag stick is locked down. Don’t touch it! Compatible with new regulation I suppose.

No rakes in bunkers. Pick it up or play as is. Use your shoes smooth out if you want. Sounds like a good idea all the time. Speeds up play.

No congregation anywhere on golf course. This too speeds up play I noticed.

No shaking hands, high five etc. Again, keeps things moving as a side benefit.

Club house closed. Can get to go orders. Hmmm…

Wash your hands after touching surfaces. Range balls?

Justin Rose concurs!

Played today in the Nashville area after a long time. The flag stick is locked down. No rakes in bunkers. Single rider or walk. Is this the norm everywhere now? pic.twitter.com/KWfxfPk3ce

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) March 25, 2020

BCG Vaccine vs COVID-19 Immunity Hypothesis

April 1, 2020 Shaker Cherukuri 21st century, Autonomous, Health Care, Root Cause Analysis, Safety and Security No Comments

There appears to be something to the theory that BCG (TB) vaccination provides immunity to COVID-19.

This is out-of-the-box thinking! Researchers in the Netherlands are testing BCG vaccine against #COVID19 as it may work to boost immunity to viruses in general! Could explain why we are seeing far fewer cases in Africa, Middle East and South Asia https://t.co/XD2QwZSSqW

— Hina Chaudhry, MD (@Hinaheartdoc) March 26, 2020

The clinical trial mentioned in the tweet above could take a long time. Since proving causation from a mere correlation is a giant leap.

However, if there is enough data to prove a strong R square for the regression between people with BCG vaccination and immunity to COVID-19 it might be enough to “prove” the causation via hypothesis test with reasonable degree of certainty.

Not too different from how most drugs are approved for specific purposes by the FDA.

Establishing causation conclusively by turning the problem on and off as is done in engineering problem solving, or should be I should say, is simply not possible in most medical issues.

Now there are situations where such conclusive proof is elusive even in the engineering world. The hypothesis test with 95% confidence level is quite adequate for most situations.

When it isn’t, it is still possible to fail safe the system via multiple redundant backup systems.

Like in an aircraft for example. However, even that can fail.

Case in point is Boeing 737 max MCAS fiasco.

Soon to be seen in the “full self drive” cars…

TALF Is Back!!

March 23, 2020 Shaker Cherukuri Blockchain, Monetary Policy No Comments

Is it 2008 Redux? This is about selling secuterized assets (loans) to the Fed. Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)

What is the Other assets?

Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy https://t.co/SR8M6qu3ps via @FederalReserve "TALF will enable the issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by ..loans and certain other assets." What is the Other assets?

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) March 23, 2020

Basically zero percent loan backed by assets.

"Although the measures are from a new playbook, the Fed also opened up the crisis-era Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to offer loans secured by eligible asset-backed securities."

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) March 23, 2020

Will it be similar to 2008 or different? 2008 was about Collateralized Mortgage Bond Securities (CMBS) mostly and Colleteralized Debt Obligations (CDO).

I sure hope it is NOT Bitcoin and other block chain digital currencies this time around.

So what is it?

Proof Elon Musk is Following My Advise!

March 22, 2020 Shaker Cherukuri Health Care, IoT, Regulatory Issues No Comments

February 5, 2020: Evaluate Tennessee for Cybertruck Production

Evaluate Tennessee as well. Amazon logistics CoE picked Nashville.

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) February 5, 2020

March 11, 2020: Not just Tennessee, but Nashville Tennessee

https://twitter.com/ProcessISInc/status/1237920799799021569?s=20

March 19, 2020: Ventilators require FDA certification unlike Cars and Rockets

Elon Musk says the ‘panic will cause more harm than the virus,’ but he’s ready to help out — ‘if needed’. Agree, panic causing more harm than virus ⁦@elonmusk⁩ But, ventilators require fda certification. Rockets and cars don’t. https://t.co/Yb8k1LsTkl

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) March 19, 2020

March 21, 2020: Elon Musk Providing assistance to Medtronic. Is this a formal foray into healthcare space?

Smart move. I see this helped. https://t.co/LvFno23or8 https://t.co/LvFno23or8

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) March 22, 2020

QED

Small Business Cash Flow Management during Coronavirus

March 18, 2020 Shaker Cherukuri Cash Flow, Small Business No Comments

Starting to see lot of posts from Small Business Owners about the severe contraction in cash flows due to the Cornonavirus shutdown.

Unlike large corporations that have a recourse via short term commercial paper to tide over cash flow constraints which is also being supported by The Fed now, Small Business do not have lot of options.

The fundamentals of cash flow management and Working Capital Gap reduction however are the same for all business. This might help.

Fundamentals of cash flow management are the same for a Small Business. This might help during the #Coronavirus contraction.#WorkingCapital Gap by #ProcessISInc #amazon #cashconversioncycle https://t.co/6LTlvJ0QCK

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) March 18, 2020

Having said that, Small businesses do not have the leverage to negotiate with suppliers, lessors, banks etc. Customers are usually transactional and not in Long Term Contracts. So this poses unique challenges.

There are some levers that can be used. For VC funded startups, the VC might step in if they see viability. For the rest, usually the owner has to use personal resources.

However, before doing that it might help to optimize for the new reality.

How? contact@processisinc.com

WiFi6 Mesh Network for Gigabit Problem Solving

March 16, 2020 Shaker Cherukuri 21st century, Autonomous, IoT No Comments

I have been trying to get the Gigabit internet service for a while now. It finally happened. Just in time for the entire family working and schooling from home due to the Corona virus induced COVID-19 seclusion!

The fiber service provider provides their own Modem in this case. Needed to get a new router since my old router is a Cable Modem/Router combo. Seemed like a good idea when I got the combo router just couple of years ago. Had to get a new router since the then five year old router was obsolete. Such is the travails of technology. The dreaded incompatibility of the hardware as software evolves.

Should have leased the router? Perhaps. I suspect a lifetime TCO analysis would probably indicate otherwise. Anyway, getting back to issue at hand, the new router evaluation brought to light, you guessed it, new technology! WiFi6 protocol.

Lo behold, I found a brand new router just out in the market. None of my devices are Wifi6 yet, but they will be eventually. Especially with IoT and the connected 21st century autonomous economy. So I went with it. It has been an interesting couple of weeks. Figured some things out during the course of troubleshooting with the service provider and the router vendor.

Needed to breakdown the problems into its individual components and formulate a hypothesis. Is it the back haul? The fiber install? The modem? The router hardware? The router software? Wifi congestion? Settings? Some combination of the above?

All said and done, the performance of the network is a lot better than it was before I got the gigabit service. However, it could be better.

Still work in progress…

21st Century Entrepreneurship! It is not about mobile apps…

October 1, 2019 Shaker Cherukuri 21st century, Autonomous, IoT No Comments

The recent upheaval in the 2019 IPOs might just be a good indication of peak mobile and peak mobile apps.

WeWork just shelved its IPO! Most of the the other 2019 IPOs are trading well below the IPO valuations and may have a long way to go before reasonable valuation if any.

Moving forward, the opportunity of a lifetime might be in the autonomous space (not limited to automotive) where AI and 5G enabled edge computing via IoT is the key enabler and safety & security is paramount.

These are interesting times indeed for early stage startup scene…

https://twitter.com/processisinc/status/1169555281593950209

We are at the cusp of yet another episode of Roaring 20s. 100 years since the last one.

Here is why: https://www.slideshare.net/ShakerCherukuri/roaring-20s-again

Stay tuned for more…

Boeing 737 Max 8 adding New Flight Control System Module?

August 2, 2019 Shaker Cherukuri Root Cause Analysis, Safety and Security No Comments

This is a big deal! Agree.

https://twitter.com/processisinc/status/1157459811514142720?s=21

However what is the new problem discovered?

https://twitter.com/processisinc/status/1155102744216264704?s=21

So looks like the software only fix was deemed to be ludicrous as I suspected.

The erroneous streams of data are now deem to be due to cosmic rays bombarding the microprocessor cells?

This was replicated in a lab? How? Using cosmic rays?

Was the problem tuned on and off?

The fix will now be a third control module that evaluates the two Flight control systems outputs and decide what makes sense? During erroneous streams of data caused by cosmic rays bombardment on the microprocessor cells?

How exactly is all this going to be validated?

To be continued…

Flight Control Systems and Systems Integration issues on Boeing 737 Max 8?

April 2, 2019 Shaker Cherukuri Autonomous, Root Cause Analysis, Safety and Security No Comments

Update 7

The offset was 60 degrees between the two AOA sensors in the case of Ethiopian Air after an incident during take off? Bird strike?

Plus the following…

MTBF is 93000 hours for the AOA. However, this is a early life failure in case of Lion Air which (the bad AOA ) apparently never worked? Replacement too?

How does the input switch between pilot side and other side between flights? Physical wiring change by maintenance crew?

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 5, 2019

How will the flight control system known faulty sensors?

With 2 sensors, if they disagree, the fix simply doesn’t activate MCAS is difference ismore than 5 degrees as per reports.

Airbus has 3 AOA sensors and they still have issues. Apparently 2 bad ones overruled the good one

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 5, 2019

94 % trust during take off is standar but the aircraft was over max safe speed of 250 knots?

300 knots and then 500 knots eventually. Air traffic control also noticed the high speed.

Could there be other things going on that we don’t know yet?

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 4, 2019

The erroneous AOA sensor in the case of Lion Air never worked as per Reuters Aero news. How is this possible?

how is that MCAS can switch back and forth between good and bad sensor?

The fix is to read both sensor do nothing if difference more than 5 degrees. Doesn’t fix sensor?

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 4, 2019

Hypothesis:

The pilots had to turn on the power to the trim motors to undo the MCAS trim.

However, due to the persistent AOA sensor offset and flawed sensor selection MCAS kept overriding the pilots aggressively.

There was no time to recover either. few hundred feet altitude.

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 4, 2019

Cutting out the power to MCAS motors did not fix the steep dive? What does that mean?

The pilots of #EthiopianAirlines turned on the motors powering the MCAS jackscrew to undo the MCAS trim. Unfortunately there wasn’t enough time And the MCAS would retrim it down aggressively due to bad AOA offset. 20 degree offset. Same as lion Air the pilots had no chance to fix

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 3, 2019

Cutting out the power to the MCAS motors did not fix the automated trim or the steep dive?

Or did fix the automated trim but not the steep dive?

The latter probably? Just not enough time given the low altitude?

So the pilots in desperations started trying everything.

Tragic!!

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 3, 2019

The Integration issues:

https://twitter.com/ProcessISInc/status/1113051884225486848

Flight control systems issue: Major upgrade in the works. Plus AOA sensor input to MCAS is not the same on all aircrafts?

This is Epic systems design and implementation failure possibly?

Different AOA sensor feeding into MCAS at divergent times? How is this possible?

Pilot side vs first officer side.

Specific to airlines?

Or vintage?

Or random?

Or integration mistakes?

Is there a specification?

— Shaker Cherukuri (@ProcessISInc) April 2, 2019