I ordered my Tesla Model 3 on December 27, 2017 after all the initial order rush was over. The email said Delivery estimate was mid 2018.
I didn’t believe it and was prepared to wait until 2020 to get my $35,000 Tesla Model 3 with the additional $7,000 tax credit which would bring my effective cost down to $31K with the sales tax factored in ($38K – $7k). Would be cash purchase so no financing cost etc. Don’t believe in borrowing money to buy a depreciating property – A topic for another conversation perhaps.
Then few months into 2018 I got another email saying the new estimate was late 2018. Really? Didn’t believe it. Still waiting for 2020.
Then came the great reviews of the product from early adopters and some consultants which added to the anticipation. Then the horror stories about bottlenecks, delay’s, quality problems, scrap rate etc. All understandable and to be expected since since we have a new product, new process, new supply chain, new robots, new software etc.
However, the car runs on Linux. Not acceptable to me as an embedded systems engineer in my early career. This is the reason I waited to order a Tesla since my expectation is that by 2020, Tesla will run on new Nvidia GPU that runs on QNX.
That and the fact that new products, especially cars, take years to mature to a point where the defect rate stabilizes to a manageable level. The 2020 Tesla’s shouldn’t have the durability issues that the 2013 Tesla’s are having now. Key word being shouldn’t.
However, it appears there is a huge culture issue at Tesla that permeates the entire organization driven my Mr. Elon Musk’s management style or lack thereof.
Details: (paywall) -> https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-faces-his-own-worst-enemy-1535727324
This will prevent Tesla from addressing the product issues and slowly improving the reliability (infant mortality) and long term durability issues.
Now that is a deal breaker for me. It doesn’t help that the $7,000 tax credit will expire soon as well, however, that was not a deal breaker.
Can this be fixed? Maybe. But not by 2020.
Also, by then there will be other choices in this space from competitors that are laser focused on making the cars instead of being distracted by flamethrowers, short shorts, submarines, rockets etc.
Now this (hobbies) would be ok if there was trust and empowerment to senior managers that manage supply chain issues, operations etc. There isn’t.
Making reliable and durable cars profitably is lot harder than it appears….
Well folks, someone had to take this on.
So why not a consortium of Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and J.P. Morgan Chase to try to figure out and tackle the intractable Health Care problem in the US.
At the gist of it, the problem on supply side of the equation involves the incentive system.
The incentives of the service providers (hospitals, physicians, labs etc), the payers (private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid) and the pharmaceutical industry are not aligned with the real overall long term well-being of the patients.
On the demand side of the equation, patients themselves are not empowered, educated or incentivized to take charge of their own health.
Large corporations are usually self insured. Meaning that the claims are paid by the corporation. However, they do hire a service provider to manage the healthcare plan. Like Anthem, United Health, Aetna etc.
So in this case, this consortium of Amazon, Berkshire and JPMorgan, will instead create its own administrator as a non profit.
Second, They will also most likely be a provider as well by building their own hospitals and hiring staff. Could be a non profit as well.
Third, the patients (the employees of the three firms to begin with) will be incentivized to really care for their own health for the long term.
Last but not least, this consortium will roll out this system to other interested corporations or even patients directly. How about $2,000/year per person for continuous monitoring of ones health and proactively addressing issues?
Whole Foods might be leveraged to be part of this solution. Perhaps ship stuff on demand to address issues identified by this self monitoring system.
Now we know the real reason for why Amazon acquired Whole Foods.
Health Care Maintenance As a Service offering once the service matures in its internal operations in collaboration with Berkshire and J.P. Morgan and Chase.
This is Very similar to the strategy Amazon used with AWS. System was first developed for its own retail operations and then sold as a service to others. Now half the internet is hosted on Amazon including Netflix!
The big news on immigration reform this week wasn’t DACA.
It was the so called Immigration Innovation (ISquared) Act of 2017 being reintroduced in the Senate by Senator Orrin Hatch (R) of Utah.
The innovation in this Senate Bill that caught my attention was the following:
Prohibitions on Replacement: Prohibits employers from hiring an H1B visa holder with the purpose and intent to replace a U.S. worker.
The intent is good here but the wording is very vague and open to lot of interpretation.
The Real Immigration Innovation would consist of a robust system that ensures the intent of the above which is, or should be if it is not, that American workers are not being short changed.
I propose the following to address this issue:
Let us create a national system for matching jobs to job seekers using, you guessed it, Blockchain!
Step 1: All US employers post all jobs in this system. Required. Not optional. Real job postings, not fake ones to eliminate US workers.
Step 2: All US Citizens seeking employment would register in this first system that automatically checks all credentials and does background checks.
Step 3: The system would match the jobs to candidates and select top 10% for further screening. The employer can decide who they want to interview in person and make selection.
Step 4: If none found, the job gets posted into a second layer where legal US residents (Green cards holders) go through the same process.
Step 5: Job gets posted to a third layer where other legal US residents (ie other than Green card holders) can apply. This would include F1 Visa students, H1B workers, H4 dependents etc. If selected, they get a temporary green card. No work visa or H4EAD or OPT needed.
Step 6: Job gets posted globally. Anyone can apply. If selected, get a provisional Green Card immediately. No work visa needed.
Highlights and Link (ISquared by Senator Orrin Hatch):
Link https://www.hatch.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?p=releases&id=F7E803D0-753E-4787-B5F7-9CAB10EE5878
Employment Based Non Immigrant H1B
Allows for unto 195,000n annual non immigrant H1B visas for skilled workers to fill the so called skills gap.
Work authorization for the spouses and children of the above H1B workers.
Raises the salary threshold for H1 Dependent employers to $100,000/year
“Super-Dependent” Employers lose that exception.
Green cards
Eliminate per country limit for Employment based green cards for those “Non Immigrant” workers.
Allow recapture of unused numbers from previous years.
Exempt the spouses and children from this cap
Exempt STEM workers and other extraordinary ability folks (athletes, artists etc)
Separate direct path for US based F1 students and those on OPT.
Are we at the cusp of a historic structural shift of the same magnitude as the Reaganomics due to the Tax Cuts And Jobs Act passed last year 2017?
Tremendous investment by companies from all over the world being made in America. There has never been anything like it. Now Disney, J.P. Morgan Chase and many others. Massive Regulation Reduction and Tax Cuts are making us a powerhouse again. Long way to go! Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 24, 2018
I think we are. Let me explain.
The biggest change in the Tax Code is the change to the Corporate tax for C corps. All publicly listed firms are C corps.
It is not the rate change from 35% to 21% that is the game changer.
Most corporations don’t really pay that top rate due to various tax strategies. All legal.
The bigger change is the change to a territorial tax system.
What does that mean?
It means US Corporations will now pay US taxes only on US Revenue minus US Costs.
So Tax = 21% x (Revenue in US – Cost in US)
Guess where most of the revenue comes from for most US multinationals?
From overseas. It is global economy. US is only 5% of world population. So this is not a surprise. Shouldn’t be. Right?
US based corporations have been shifting jobs overseas to lower costs since wages are lower.
Now there is a huge incentive to bring all those jobs back to the US due this new Tax Code.
Back to the Tax equation. Tax = 21% x (Revenue in US – Cost in US)