India Means Business! Fifth largest economy.

India Means Business! Fifth largest economy.

Discourse of this blog post on Twitter

China and India have always been the world largest economies by virtue of the fact that those two subcontinental areas, since national boundaries are a more recent phennomenon, have always had the largest populations for the past few thousand years.

 

Then Europeans took over. Followed by Britain. Then the Americans. Japan had its roaring 80s and then fell into a deflation malaise.

Most of these economic shifts were due to trade, industrialization and currency.

 

Now once again we are in the midst of tectonic shifts in the world economy. Most of it is due to technology and obviously population and demographics play a role as well.

 

China overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy a decade or so ago. Will soon be largest overtaking the United States by 2032 I hear.

 

This year, 2018, is when India is expected to or already has over taken France and United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth largest economy.

 

This is a watershed moment. India overtaking its former colonist, mighty Britain, to become world’s fifth largest economy.

 

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s Make In India initiative and later de-monitization most likely will pave the way for future growth even though it (de-monetization) did cause a temporary setback.

 

The US Tax Code change and currency fluctuations could provide some challenges especially to the now quite mature IT export sector.

 

The multinational corporations that have a large USD denominated debt component on their balance sheet would need to watch out for further depreciation of Indian Rupee against the USD.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, hold on to your seats and watch the lift off of Indian economy. Stars are all lined up for India.

 

21st Century belongs to India. India Means Business indeed!

 

Caveats are the the following:

The GDP metric and units of measurement for gross domestic product is USD. That could change in the future.

Also, all this is predicated on the assumption that things will continue to progress as executed.

Unfortunately, they never do.

Remember Japan in 1980s?

 

Good additional information here in this WSJ Article (paywall):

Davos is Narendra Modi’s big stage to push a muscular vision of India https://www.wsj.com/articles/davos-offers-modi-stage-to-push-muscular-vision-for-india-1516552979 via @WSJ

 

To be continued…

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