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Current Affairs Discourse

Blog about Current Affairs

Current Affairs Discourse

Blockchain – The Mother of All Disruptions!

The mother of all disruptions could be happening right now with Blockchain.

Not to be confused with the digital currency bubble.

Blockchain could be an enabler for Decentralization of just about everything. This will happen rapidly.

Think back to 2000 and compare it today.

Due to Rate of change acceleration 2050 could happen by 2030.

High fixed cost conglomerate business model might be a casualty as well.

As evident from the recent strategic shift at GE after a catastrophic drop in free cash flow from $14 Billion to $ 7 Billion.

The last man standing of the original Dow components.

 

By 2030, more than half of the current Dow Components could be gone. Possibly two thirds.

Yes, that is right, 20 of 30 current dow component could be gone by 2030.

 

The biggest reason for that will be Blockchain in my opinion.

 

So how is all this related to Political Discourse?

 

Stay tuned…

 

Good additional information here: https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/The-Blockchain-Revolution-Is-Heading-To-Space.html

Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! TaxCutsAndJobsAct Is it the TrumpEconomics Era?

Are we at the cusp of a historic structural shift of the same magnitude as the Reaganomics due to the Tax Cuts And Jobs Act passed last year 2017?

 

I think we are. Let me explain.

The biggest change in the Tax Code is the change to the Corporate tax for C corps. All publicly listed firms are C corps.

It is not the rate change from 35% to 21% that is the game changer.

Most corporations don’t really pay that top rate due to various tax strategies. All legal.

The bigger change is the change to a territorial tax system.

What does that mean?

It means US Corporations will now pay US taxes only on US Revenue minus US Costs.

So Tax = 21% x (Revenue in US – Cost in US)

Guess where most of the revenue comes from for most US multinationals?

From overseas. It is global economy. US is only 5% of world population. So this is not a surprise. Shouldn’t be. Right?

US based corporations have been shifting jobs overseas to lower costs since wages are lower.

Now there is a huge incentive to bring all those jobs back to the US due this new Tax Code.

Back to the Tax equation. Tax = 21% x (Revenue in US – Cost in US)

 

So that is why, Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!

India Means Business! Fifth largest economy.

Discourse of this blog post on Twitter

China and India have always been the world largest economies by virtue of the fact that those two subcontinental areas, since national boundaries are a more recent phennomenon, have always had the largest populations for the past few thousand years.

 

Then Europeans took over. Followed by Britain. Then the Americans. Japan had its roaring 80s and then fell into a deflation malaise.

Most of these economic shifts were due to trade, industrialization and currency.

 

Now once again we are in the midst of tectonic shifts in the world economy. Most of it is due to technology and obviously population and demographics play a role as well.

 

China overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy a decade or so ago. Will soon be largest overtaking the United States by 2032 I hear.

 

This year, 2018, is when India is expected to or already has over taken France and United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth largest economy.

 

This is a watershed moment. India overtaking its former colonist, mighty Britain, to become world’s fifth largest economy.

 

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s Make In India initiative and later de-monitization most likely will pave the way for future growth even though it (de-monetization) did cause a temporary setback.

 

The US Tax Code change and currency fluctuations could provide some challenges especially to the now quite mature IT export sector.

 

The multinational corporations that have a large USD denominated debt component on their balance sheet would need to watch out for further depreciation of Indian Rupee against the USD.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, hold on to your seats and watch the lift off of Indian economy. Stars are all lined up for India.

 

21st Century belongs to India. India Means Business indeed!

 

Caveats are the the following:

The GDP metric and units of measurement for gross domestic product is USD. That could change in the future.

Also, all this is predicated on the assumption that things will continue to progress as executed.

Unfortunately, they never do.

Remember Japan in 1980s?

 

Good additional information here in this WSJ Article (paywall):

Davos is Narendra Modi’s big stage to push a muscular vision of India https://www.wsj.com/articles/davos-offers-modi-stage-to-push-muscular-vision-for-india-1516552979 via @WSJ

 

To be continued…

US Senate 60 Vote Rule – Is it fair?

The Senate 60 Vote Rule discussion.

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/295859-senate-60-vote-rule-is-an-abuse-of-democracy

 

Yes, the smaller states do get the same votes (two senators from each state) as the bigger states and can filibuster legislative agenda.

 

We do have a similar issue, although of not the same magnitude, with the US Electoral College system where one can lose the popular vote but still win.

 

The 60 Vote rule apparently can be changed by the senate and it has been in the past (2013).

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-threaten-nuclear-gop-blockade-obama-nominees/story?id=20964700

 

However, the above change from 60 to 51 vote was for presidential nominees excluding US Supreme Court judges.

 

So it appears, the agreement right now might be for the Senate to change the 60 Vote rule to 51 for Appropriation legislative voting as well?

 

The Nuclear Option?

 

Stay tuned…

US Government Shutdown 2018 Day 2

It is Sunday morning in America. Third Sunday of the year already. We have come out of a deep freeze and looking like a spring day almost!

 

NFL Playoffs are on later today with New England Patriots taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Foxboro (what a shocker!) and the Philadelphia Eagles taking on Minnesota Vikings.

 

But the talk of the Country today on Sunday Morning talk and news shows is this:

 

Government shutdown 2018 Day 2.

 

Time to fix the budget impasse with real long term sustainable regulations instead of short term continuing resolutions.

 

Wake up America!

 

Pay attention to regulatory issues in general and fiscal policy in particular.

 

US Senate and Congress do this via Bills which can be found here:

 

https://www.govtrack.us

 

This is more important than NFL.

 

Stay tuned for updates…

Update 1: http://processisinc.com/blog3/us-senate-60-vote-rule-is-it-fair/